The Falling Apple, Revisited
Some thoughts on the state of Apple ahead of WWDC 2017
A year ago, I made the case for why Wall Street was being foolish when trying to apply an Amazon-tinted lens to Apple. Back then, Apple could seemingly do no right, even in the face of continually incredible numbers. Reading any selection of articles in the press, you would have thought that Apple, the most highly valued company in the world, was doomed. Doomed!
Fast forward to today and it’s a very different story. Apple’s stock is at a new all-time high. The company recently became the first in history to have a market cap over $800 billion. A trillion dollars is well within range. Trillion. As expected, those headlines and fears just a year ago seem foolish.
And yet.
I decided I wanted to publish some brief thoughts on the state of Apple tonight ahead of their annual WWDC conference tomorrow. Because I know that I’ll be swept up in the excitement about whatever it is that they announce tomorrow — more tools and APIs for developers, new OSes, new iPads!, new MacBooks?, a Siri Speaker?! — just as everyone else will be. And while it’s not my job to cover the day-to-day of Apple anymore, I feel like my view from one-step back perhaps provides a good perspective.
And what I see is a company slipping.
Now, now, now. Deep breath. I didn’t say that I think Apple is falling. Or going down any time soon. The largest companies in the world have a funny way of hanging around. Microsoft, for example, is also at an all-time high in terms of stock price — yes, even above 1999 peaks. I just look at Apple these days and see a company showing signs of fatigue, or sloppiness, or worse: lack of imagination. And I know I’m hardly alone.
Again, I know what this sounds like. Everyone is always saying this type of thing about Apple. Like last year, for instance! But I’d like to believe I’m not “everyone” in this case. I have sort of this reputation for being a staunch defender. In my own head, I honestly don’t care about outside perception, I care about one thing: being right. I’ve been right about Apple for the past decade. And I believe I’m right again now that they’re slipping.
The big examples are obvious. The latest MacBook Pro is not entirely a misstep, but its main new feature is misguided. The Apple Watch is decent, and actually a pretty great business, but it doesn’t live up to the Apple pedigree. The iPad is an even better business, but it — and I know how ridiculous this sounds — got too good, too quickly. Very few people need the latest and greatest. The iPhone is slowly approaching such status as well.
And let’s not even get into the new Mac Pro, because Apple barely did.
Meanwhile, on the software side of things, macOS is in a similar boat of stasis. Everything is incremental from here on out. iOS is in better shape, but for how long? iTunes, as it currently stands, is an unmitigated disaster.¹ Siri, at best, is in third place in a race it started from pole position. We’ll see what Apple’s take on hardware looks like — beautiful, no doubt — for such a service. But the service itself remains the issue. It’s just not great. And we expect great from Apple.
I could go on, but you get the picture. And if you’re an Apple user who is being intellectually honest, you know all of this to be true. But we all take solace in knowing that overall, Apple still makes the best combination of hardware and software. So the notion of switching to something else remains silly. But with enough slippage over enough time…
This is how I, as someone who went to the midnight launch of Windows 95, ended up as an Apple user a handful of years later. Things change.
So this is what I find myself thinking about on the eve of WWDC 2017. Again, I’m sure that whatever Apple announces tomorrow will have me excited. But in a couple months, will I remain excited? Hard to say.
I have high hopes for the iPhone 8. Hopefully not too high. But seeing the form factor that competitors are already rolling out and knowing that Apple will undoubtedly launch the better version, I’m excited. What they’re doing to and with photography is amazing. And the AirPods are an absolute grand slam. But, to extend the analogy, we’ve been spoiled by grand slams the past decade. More recently, it has felt like some singles, a few doubles, and even a handful of outs. Like a company slipping. Even if just a bit.
In other words, an Apple not rotten to the core, but starting to look beyond ripe. And perhaps starting to wither. Let’s hope it’s just the skin.
¹ Though I will say that Apple Music itself continues to improve, in my experience.
