Carrots Before Sticks
The masks come off, but the vaccine battle rages on…
It’s not quite ‘VV Day’ (Victory over Virus), but this is probably the closest it has felt yet, at least in America. With the news that the CDC is basically removing mask-wearing guidance for fully vaccinated people, “normal” life feels well within reach once again.¹
It’s great. It’s a happy day. And it’s important to celebrate happy days — especially after a year-plus of trying ones. But…
And I should just note that I’m obviously not a doctor nor an expert in this world, just an observer who likes to jot down thoughts and perhaps be proven correct in the end.My guess is that this morning’s announcement is just as much about optics and incentives as anything else. That is to say, I view it largely as a carrot, aimed mostly at the people who are not yet vaccinated.
As everyone is undoubtedly well aware by now, we’ve turned the corner from vaccine scarcity to abundance in the U.S. Basically, everyone over a certain age (as of today, 12) who wants a vaccine can get one and often immediately in many parts of the country. The problem now is the group — which is sizable, perhaps 25-30 percent of the country — which does not want to get a vaccine or flat-out refuses, for whatever reason.
And yet, to fully beat this thing — to declare ‘VV Day’ — we need at least some, and ideally most of those people to get the vaccine too. Most war analogies are inappropriate and out of place. Not here. The nation as a whole needs to step up to beat this thing. The cliche about ‘weakest links’ applies.
And yet, we live in a country that is deeply divided. The most recent election showcased that in many disturbing visceral and literal ways. And the vaccine charts seem to echo it, unsurprisingly. The vaccine has been weaponized. It should have been against the virus, but it has been against ourselves.
And while it’s a nice thought, we’re not going to beat that with a sense of national purpose, sadly. It’s going to take some incentives.
That’s why the move Ohio, my home state, made to create a million-dollar lottery is hardly surprising. Again, it’s sad that we have to resort to this, but it is what it is. And we need more ideas that are outside-the-box like that. Free beer works too. Free produce. Free anything.² Just get shots in arms.
Back to today, this chart is amazing. Both because it includes a very specific call out to being able to sing in an indoor choir, but also because it’s all-green, all the way down. Again, if you have the vaccine, you are now (or soon, depending on the states/counties) free to do most things without a mask. After a year-plus of lockdown, this is a huge incentive! Obviously!
Left unsaid is how on Earth we’re going to police this. The vaccine cards are laughably simple, and thus, simple to copy. But I think even before we get there, we’re going to go with an honor system, which is okay if the medical professionals feel comfortable that people who are vaccinated are very, very, very unlikely to contract COVID even if around those who are unvaccinated. And those that do get it are very, very, very unlikely to get sick enough to require hospitalization (if they get sick at all). And most importantly, the vaccinated are very, very, very unlikely to spread it. That last point is what I think is the real key to this announcement.³
It’s more complicated than that, of course — in particular if you have young kids, as I do. But for these purposes, they’re still unvaccinated people and thus, should still wear a mask in the situations outlined, obviously. Mainly to protect them against those who are unvaccinated, including other kids!⁴
Anyway, back to the incentives. The free beer will move some needles. Literally! The million dollar lotteries will move others. And the mask-free promise will move more still. But my guess is that it still won’t be enough to get us to where we want to be. Again, ‘VV Day’.
That will require some sticks.
The most obvious one is the vaccine passports. Unfortunately, and unsurprisingly, that has already been politicized as well, before it has even been figured out. But make no mistake, some sort of documentation, digital or otherwise, will be needed at some point to do certain things. Does that mean going to a restaurant? For some, probably! A bar? Again, for some, undoubtedly! A sporting event? Perhaps! Work? In many cases, yep. And the big stick: traveling. In particular, on an airplane. This may be a huge stick the government works with the airlines behind-the-scenes to wield. And it will probably work!
The reality is that it’s probably going to take all of those sticks and more to get us to ‘VV Day’. Today we got a nice, juicy carrot and we should enjoy it. And hopefully those who are unvaccinated eat their vegetables. But it’s probably too much to hope that it moves the needles it needs to move enough.⁵ Again, this whole thing is highly politicized. People are dug in. It’s going to take some sticks.
¹ Of course, it will be up to states and local governments to follow this guidance or not… We’ll see how long it takes San Francisco to remove the stink eye from the equation, even if/when the new rules are enacted.
² Even this! Whatever this is!
³ Especially from the CDC, which has a mixed record in this pandemic, to put it nicely!
⁴ Again, kids down to 12 years old were just given the greenlight. Hopefully it will be kids down to 2 in the next few months. 🤞
⁵ Of course money-as-a-stick is another option…
