Apple’s “Boar on the Floor” Mistake

Using money and power to try to bend content to their will…

The following isn’t so much a spoiler about the HBO show Succession as it is a brief explanation of a truly bizarre, amazing moment from this season.

In episode 3, with the senior leadership of Waystar Royco on a retreat in… Hungary, there’s a dinner strategy session following a wild boar hunt. With a major deal hanging in the balance and patriarch Logan Roy feeling betrayed, he decides he’s going to make those he feels may be undermining him to play a game. That game is called “Boar on the Floor” and basically revolves around the immensely wealthy, all-powerful CEO making a few employees — and members of his family — get on the floor to fight over meat being thrown their way. While oinking, naturally.

It’s a surreal scene, and the most memorable of the series thus far. It also perfectly showcases the immense power and hubris of Logan. While also highlighting how those under him will put up with anything.

Anyway, I bring up the scene because I’m reminded of it in an entirely different context. Like many folks who watch either Hollywood, the ever-ramping streaming wars, or both, I’ve been tracking where J.J. Abrams would end up. The news that he was signing a (sort-of) exclusive deal with WarnerMedia (of which HBO is a part, of course) was both surprising and not. Surprising because Warner seems to be stumbling towards their streaming future in ways that some of their competition is not. At the same time, thanks to the AT&T giant conglomorate ownership, Warner can offer Abrams a deal and avenues for his content that others can’t match.

Framed that way, it’s no wonder that Warner beat out the likes of Apple for Abrams. But then the details leaked about what Apple was offering and what Abrams walked away from. The tech giant apparently went all-out with their offer — pushing the billion dollar envelope. Yet Abrams still signed with Warner for a deal that, at least on the current piece of paper, is worth maybe half as much, maybe even less (though there are massive incentives in each).

This report by Lesley Goldberg for The Hollywood Reporter would seem to be a good breakdown of Abrams’ thinking:

Several factors, however, led to Bad Robot’s ultimate decision to bypass the eye-popping deal. Among them was the hardware firm’s desire to see Bad Robot create new projects only for Apple — meaning Abrams would not have been allowed to work on outside projects for companies like Disney (Star Wars) or Paramount (Star Trek) and TV projects would not be sold to third-party outlets.

Also a concern was Apple’s lack of a theatrical distribution model. A sizable chuck of Bad Robot’s earnings come from the blockbuster features that Abrams directs (hence the $1 billion earnings estimate). Also a concern was Apple’s lack of IP for Abrams to adapt for the company. Paramount, for instance, was able to offer Abrams the Star Trek film franchise when he was under contract there. Some in the TV community were speculating in recent weeks that Abrams was on the 1-yard line with Apple for a $750 million to $1 billion deal but was unimpressed with its March “upfront” presentation in Cupertino and balked. (Sources close to Abrams and Apple categorically deny that his decision to sign with WarnerMedia had anything to do with that presentation.)

The last line in particular is humorous. Apple, or “sources close to the company”, didn’t mind the assertion that they couldn’t possibly compete with Warner’s reach or catalog. But they wanted to make it very clear that he was not “unimpressed” by Apple’s (rather bizzare and wayward) March media event to unveil Apple TV+.

And yet.

A handful of times the past few months I’ve shared some of the stories coming out of Cupertino that the tech giant was a bit too hands-on with the content they’re ramping up for the Apple TV+ service. Apple, of course, denies this each time it comes up. And yet, the smoke keeps billowing. After I share these stories, various different folks “in the know” (either directly or indirectly working on productions) reach out to suggest that not only are these stories true, but that the situation is actually far worse than what is being reported. Working with Apple in this capacity is seen to be a disaster, is the basic gist.

In that light, I think the final point as to why Abrams went with Warner over Apple is more important than it may seem. Impressed or not by their presentation, Abrams is connected to basically everyone and everything in Hollywood these days. He must hear what I and others keep hearing, except echoing in his ears with Dolby Atmos-like clarity.

He also, of course, happens to be working on some shows for Apple. So that clarity is also likely in Dolby Vision, 4K, HDR resolution.

But then why would he work with them at all? Well, two reasons. The first is money. The second is power. Translation: Abrams and everyone else is working with Apple right now for the same reasons that Logan Roy is able to get his subordinates to writhe on the floor oinking for sausages.

But ruling with fear and power has ramifications. Notably, your people are more likely to be disloyal. And so you’ll note that not only did Abrams not sign an exclusive pact with Apple, seemingly no one else has. And this is in an era where other producers and showrunners are signing up with the likes of Netflix, Amazon, and yes, Warner, left-and-right.

Apple has more money than any of those players. Hell, they must have more cash than all of them combined. Yet they can’t land these deals. Curious, no?

It’s pretty clear that Apple is going to need to change their approach here (yet again). I don’t care how attractive the $4.99 price point for Apple TV+ may be, if the content isn’t there in a meaningful way, pretty quickly, it will not work. And the content won’t be there if they keep pushing away talent.

Logan Roy’s disciples may not have a lot of other options when it comes to work. The players in Hollywood have more options than ever thanks to these streaming wars into which Apple is entering a day late, but not a dollar short. Which is to say, as wealthy as they may be, Apple can’t afford to make their talent play “Boar on the Floor”. The sausages can be had elsewhere. Served on plates, no less.