Anagnorisis
When BlackBerry was dead, but didn’t realize it yet
Yesterday, I linked to this Economist Espresso blurb about the declining fortunes — quite literally — of BlackBerry. In particular, the chart showing the company’s sharp drop in revenue since its peak is stunning. As I noted: How fast can a powerhouse fall? This fast.
But perhaps even more interesting is what lay beneath such a chart. Everyone knows that the BlackBerry’s fate was sealed by the launch of the iPhone. But that device launched in 2007. And yet, BlackBerry revenue peaked in 2011, a full four years later. Not only that, but the company’s revenue rose by 4x over that time frame.
There are explanations for this, of course. One main one likely being the nature of BlackBerry’s (née RIM’s) enterprise-focused business and the IT contracts associated with it. But you can’t help but wonder if such numbers didn’t lull RIM into a false sense of complacency. “iPhone? Psssh, just look at these charts! Keep calm and carry on.”
Of course, reality was that they were dead and just didn’t know it yet. In response to my tweet, Chris Dixon linked to a post from 2012 called The Coyote and the Cliff. In it, the author makes the great analogy to Wile E. Coyote chasing the Roadrunner right off a cliff. As we’ve all seen, for a while, he keeps on running, mid-air, without realizing the ground below him is no longer there. By the time he does realize it, it’s too late.
As the author notes, there’s an actual term for this: Anagnorisis. It’s the moment, usually in a play, that a character makes a critical discovery.
It would seem that RIM made some sort of discovery back in January 2012, as they replaced their co-CEOs with a new one. Unfortunately, despite the leadership change, the song remained the same. “I don’t think there is a drastic change needed,” newly-appointed Thorsten Heins said at the time. He believed any perceived issues with the company were on the PR front. Again, just look at those charts!
Then RIM’s revenue fell in 2012. Then it fell far more sharply in 2013. By November of that year, Heins was out (with a nice $22 million parting gift).
The lesson here is obvious, yet undoubtedly hard to grok when you’re in the moment — especially if you’re too far in the forest… Numbers may not lie, but they can deceive. Sometimes it is useful to take a step back and look at the broader landscape. Your numbers tell you you’re doing fine, great even, but are there other numbers that suggest otherwise? Are you looking at lagging indicators versus leading ones? Correctly calibrating that reference point can be the difference between life and death.¹
Easier said than done, of course. But not impossible. Unless you’ve already reached Anagnorisis. Happens to the best of us…
