An ‘iPhone Ultra’
Thinking through the ramifications of Apple going even higher-end with the iPhone…
Here’s Mark Gurman in his Power On newsletter today:
Apple’s plan to draw a greater distinction between the Pro and Pro Max has spurred speculation that the company will opt for a new top-end brand: the Ultra. Apple has already used that name for its sporty high-end smartwatch and the top version of the M1 processor.
But instead of renaming the Pro Max “the Ultra,” Apple could add an even higher-end iPhone above both Pro models. Internally, the company has discussed doing just that — potentially in time for the 2024 iPhone release.
I’ve long wanted Apple to simplify the iPhone lineup and go with either the tried-and-true “Small, Medium, Large” or “Good, Better, Best” models. The closest they’ve gotten to this was probably with the unveiling of the iPhone X alongside the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus in 2017.¹ They then followed this up by going downmarket for the next cycle, unveiling the iPhone XR at the lower-end below the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max (maybe Apple’s worst branding?). And this led to a slight simplification of the line with the iPhone 11, iPhone 11 Pro, and iPhone 11 Pro Max (‘Pro Max’ is perhaps only slightly ahead of ‘XS Max’ in the branding department, but it’s still silly — “Great Big!”). Apple then went to a fourth “tier” six months later with the second iPhone SE. And kept this general game plan — a sort of hybrid of the two models: (Smaller, Good, Better, Bigger) — in place for a couple cycles. Last year, they tweaked it a bit again,² so currently we have:
- iPhone SE (Smaller, Cheaper)³
- iPhone 14 (Better)
- iPhone 14 Plus (Better, Bigger)
- iPhone 14 Pro (Best)
- iPhone 14 Pro Max (Best, Bigger)
Apple somewhat oddly also still sells the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 mini. But none of those are cheaper than the iPhone SE. And the iPhone 12 has a slower processor than the SE and again, still costs more. The 12’s screen is larger and the camera a bit better, but it’s a weird tier to keep around. The iPhone 13 mini is smaller than the iPhone SE but has a larger screen. Anyway, we’re way beyond “Good, Better, Best” here, clearly.
So if Apple is indeed going to do an “Ultra” iPhone model, it would be a great, natural time to simplify the lineup again. I would love it if they dropped the number system — are we really going to be doing this with say, the ‘iPhone 38’ in 2046? — I’m fairly certain they won’t anytime soon (the iPhone X -> iPhone XS -> iPhone 11 was a more natural time to do it), still, a boy can dream. Wouldn’t it be great to simply see:
- iPhone (Good)
- iPhone Pro (Better)⁴
- iPhone Ultra (Best)
Instead, this would be my bet if we do see an ‘Ultra’ in 2024:
- iPhone 16 (Good)
- iPhone 16 Plus (Good, Bigger)
- iPhone 16 Pro (Better)
- iPhone 16 Pro Max (Better, Bigger)
- iPhone 16 Ultra (Best)
Now, Apple could use the opportunity to kill off the ‘Plus’ and ‘Max’ (read: bigger versions) as the trend is continuing to be towards larger phones anyway, and so they could just make the “regular” phones larger as the norm. I suspect if they headed in that direction, they’d kill off the ‘iPhone 16 Plus’ first, as “power” users (read: Pro users) might still want a smaller and larger option. But the ‘Ultra’ would muddle that all a bit — how large would the Ultra’s screen be?⁵ I assume the same as the ‘Pro Max’ and other things would be “Ultra” about the device… So instead, that would perhaps imply that the ‘Pro Max’ could be retired… If that’s the case, we’d have:
- iPhone 16 (Good)
- iPhone 16 Pro (Better)
- iPhone 16 Ultra (Best)
I like it! But again, maybe Apple wants to keep around a size differentiator option with either the 16 or 16 Pro. beyond the older iPhones which would still undoubtedly be for sale. Speaking of, of course, Apple’s single biggest reason not to retire the numbering system is so that they can continue to sell the iPhones 15 (and likely one version of the iPhone 14) at a lower price point in 2024.⁶
Anyway, just thinking outloud here. The obvious real reason to do an iPhone ‘Ultra’ is because Apple can. Which is to say, Apple can sell an even more premium device at an even more premium price point.
Cook was fielding a question about whether the iPhone’s rising average sales price was sustainable. After all, a top-of-the-line model that cost $1,150 in 2017 (the iPhone X with 256 gigabytes of storage) now fetches $1,600 (the iPhone 14 Pro Max with 1 terabyte).
His response: The price increase is no problem. In fact, consumers could probably be persuaded to spend more.
“I think people are willing to really stretch to get the best they can afford in that category,” Cook said on the call, noting that the iPhone has become “integral” to people’s lives. Consumers now use the device to make payments, control smart-home appliances, manage their health and store banking data, he said.
Yes, they absolutely will pay. Honestly, I will! And I will for the reason Cook suggests: the iPhone is the most-used and most important computer in my life, so if I can afford it (something Apple makes a bit easier with their monthly payment plans), I’m going to buy it. Even if it’s just a slightly overclocked processor.⁷ Or more cores.⁸ Or more RAM.⁹ (More on that later…) And what if the “Apple Prime” model, where the cost of the actual iPhone is baked into the Apple One bundle is ready to go by then…
As an aside, this post, from almost six years ago, is fun to read in hindsight. It made the case for how an “iPhone Pro” at a high price point could make sense if Apple was going to eventually launch an “Apple Prime” service:
One thing Gruber does not touch on, which could come into play here as well: the ‘iPhone Upgrade Program’. The uproar over Gruber’s post is mainly predicated around how no one will want to pay over $1,000 for a phone. Which is hogwash, of course. People will pay.
As Gruber notes, for many folks — myself included — the iPhone is the mostimportant computer they own. If someone can afford to pay for an improved iPhone — and cost/price is something to be mindful of, but this is a typical question for Apple since, well, forever — they will. And for those people, it will be worth it.
For those more worried about any rising upfront costs, for the past couple of years, Apple has been touting their ‘iPhone Upgrade Program’ — including on-stage during iPhone unveilings. This is the program that basically allows you to defer the full cost of the iPhone over monthly installment payments. And, perhaps more importantly, it allows you to upgrade to the new iPhone each year. Because you’re basically paying Apple in perpetuity.
“People will pay” indeed.
The “iPhone Pro” ended up being the iPhone X, of course. Apple ended up bringing the “iPhone Upgrade Program” in house thanks to Apple Card. ‘Apple One’ is their first services bundle but does not yet include the iPhone, but the rumors suggest that it will at some point. I thought it might make sense all those years ago to obfuscate the cost of the $1,000+ iPhone Pro. Let’s just extend the argument for the $1,500 — $2,000 iPhone Ultra.
The most surprising thing may be that Samsung beat Apple to the ‘Ultra’ punch. And while the highest end of their traditional smartphone line may just be branding, they do sell a phone, the Z Fold4 (my god, that branding), for $2,160 — over $500 more than Apple’s most expensive phone! Sure, Apple doesn’t have a foldable phone yet (and probably not anytime soon), but they clearly have room to go and grow with regard to price points.
Let’s guess some starting pricing for 2024:
- iPhone SE ($399)¹⁰
- iPhone 14 ($499)
- iPhone 15 ($599)
- iPhone 15 Plus ($699)
- iPhone 16 ($799)
- iPhone 16 Plus ($899)
- iPhone 16 Pro ($999)
- iPhone 16 Pro Max ($1,099)
- iPhone 16 Ultra ($1,499)
While the ‘Ultra’ would be a huge jump in starting price, it wouldn’t be nearly the jump the ‘Apple Watch Ultra’ has over the ‘Apple Watch 8’ — which effectively doubled the price. I’m just not sure Apple could get away with a $2,000 starting price point for an iPhone. At least not yet.
Also, while the current top of the line iPhone 14 Pro Max starts at $1,099, a fully spec’d-out version — 1TB of storage — costs $1,599. That would be $100 more than my hypothetical ‘Ultra’, so perhaps Apple feels the need to go to $1,699 to start. Or, perhaps more likely, we see:
- iPhone 16 Ultra 256GB ($1,499)
- iPhone 16 Ultra 512GB ($1,699)
- iPhone 16 Ultra 1TB ($1,899)
- iPhone 16 Ultra 2TB ($2,299)
A few things here. First, While the iPhones Pro start at 128GB of storage, you could easily see Apple doubling this with the ‘Ultra’ to start. And then the price would go up in the same $200 increments as on the iPhones Pro. But the iPhones Pro top out at 1TB, the Ultra could very well go to where the iPads Pro end at 2TB. For the iPad, Apple tends to charge $400 for the various step ups in storage at the higher ends.¹¹ So again, you could see Apple copying that playbook to double the storage on the iPhone Ultra to 2TB. And $2,299 would beat the most expensive Samsung device in terms of price. In this case “beat” meaning, would be more expensive.
The iPhone Ultra. The most premium device.
Next up: how about a 24-carat gold iPhone? I’m only half kidding.
Update 2/10/23: These renders are far better than DALL-E’s :)
¹ Apple had previously introduced a third “tier” of iPhones with the iPhone SE in 2016, but it was in the Spring, six months after the launch of the iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus (to this day, I’m not certain if the ‘S’ is supposed to be capitalized or not) and six months before the launch of the iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus.
² It seems the “mini” iPhones wasn’t pulling its weight in terms of sales — which is both a bit surprising and too bad — so Apple has started phasing it out while keeping the iPhone SE as the way to offer a smaller iPhone.
³ Though Apple would never, ever, ever acknowledge “cheaper” as being a tier, of course. It’s more if you want TouchID, or something, of course.
⁴ Actually, maybe ‘iPhone Plus’ would make more sense here for the “better” device. I’ll note that there is no “Apple Watch Pro” and “Pro” is the top-of-the-line for the devices where it does exist in the name — except for the M-series chips now.
⁵ The fact that any new screen dimensions haven’t leaked, even for 2024, would seem to point to an ‘Ultra’ phone having the same screen size as the ‘Pro Max’. This seems especially true since there are leaks indicating that the main upgrade of the screens in 2024 is under-the-screen FaceID for the high-end models.
⁶ The main issue with the streamlined ‘iPhone’, ‘iPhone Plus/Pro’, and ‘iPhone Max’ branding is that there’s no easy way to denote last year’s (let alone two year’s ago) iPhone. If you tried to use the year, it would make the older iPhone seem old (they are, but again, it’s about perception for marketing — people always want “NEW” even if it’s not actually new). The iPad hasn’t typically had these problems as they usually don’t sell the older versions at discounts, they just move the entire line to newer versions. Though they actually are selling two generations right now — the ‘10th Generation’ iPad and the ‘9th Generation’ iPad are both on sale, the latter being $120 cheaper. Aha! Eventually, Apple could do this for the iPhone, they’d have to re-do all the packaging (at least in the first year doing it), but it could work. They just need to break the stronghold that the increasing number next to ‘iPhone’ has on the world right now. Easier said than done!
⁷ How Apple does this — if Apple does this — while maintaining battery life will be interesting. I’d be okay with a slightly thicker device for more battery! As a bonus, the increasingly ridiculous camera system protrusions may be slightly less pronounced!
⁸ Might we see the first A-series “Ultra” chip — finally removing the silly “Bionic” from the equation? Or maybe an ‘iPhone Ultra’ includes an M-series chip like the Macs and iPads?
⁹ Presumably, we may get a couple new sensors too, sort of like the Apple Watch Ultra? I really want an “Action” button!
¹⁰ Unclear what Apple will do here with the iPhone SE. The first model came out in 2016 and the second didn’t come until 2020. And then the third version came in 2022. You could see either a fourth generation come in 2024 or Apple keeping the 2022 in place for another year. And if that’s the case, dropping the price slightly to $399 (making the price lineup above very clean), seems more likely.
¹¹ One other little-talked-about oddity of the high end of the iPads Pro, the two versions above 1TB of storage also feature double the RAM (16GB versus 8GB). This alone causes me to buy the 1TB iPad Pro even though I don’t need that much storage. Again, you could easily see Apple doing something like this with an iPhone Ultra — the 1TB and 2TB versions could get 16GB of RAM, instead of the 8GB rumored to be in the iPhone 15 Pro models (up from 6GB in the iPhone 14 models).
